How to Know If You Have Made the Right Decision: Insights from Academic Research

Recently I was presented with a very interesting and promising career opportunity. After deliberating for a long time, I decided to turn it down with profuse gratitude.

After the decision was made, I cannot help but wonder: Did I make the right decision?

So I decided to ask ChatGPT. What I got was surprisingly better than I expected. In particular, it cited quite a few academic studies, which I would like to read more on. In contrast, when I asked Perplexity AI to write an essay on this topic, it cited material from popular press. After I asked for more rigorous studies, however, it produced a decent article, but still not as good as ChatGPT. So here it is.

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Decision-making is a fundamental part of life, influencing personal choices, business strategies, and policy-making. However, determining whether a decision is “right” is often challenging. While many people judge their decisions based on the outcomes, research suggests that a more reliable approach involves evaluating the quality of the decision-making process, emotional response, and long-term alignment with personal values.

Outcome-Based vs. Process-Based Decision-Making

One of the most common pitfalls in assessing decisions is the tendency to judge them by their results rather than the process used to make them. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) introduced Prospect Theory, which highlights how people often evaluate choices based on perceived gains and losses rather than the decision-making process itself. This can lead to hindsight bias, where individuals unfairly assess past decisions using current knowledge.

Russo and Schoemaker (1990) argue that a decision should be judged by the quality of the decision-making process, not just the result. A well-structured process that considers all available information, risks, and potential outcomes is more likely to lead to consistently good decisions, even if individual results vary due to unforeseen factors.

The Role of Regret and Satisfaction

Another way to determine the quality of a decision is through regret analysis. Bell (1982) proposed Regret Theory, which suggests that people anticipate potential regret and adjust their choices to minimize it. If a decision results in little or no long-term regret, it may indicate that it was the right choice.

Connolly and Zeelenberg (2002) further explored this concept, finding that regret can serve as a valuable feedback mechanism. They argue that if, after some time, a person does not dwell on alternative choices or feel significant dissatisfaction, the decision was likely sound.

Psychological Well-Being and Decision Satisfaction

Schwartz (2004) introduced the Paradox of Choice, which suggests that having too many options can lead to dissatisfaction. His research indicates that “satisficers“—people who choose a “good enough” option—tend to be happier with their decisions than “maximizers,” who constantly seek the absolute best choice.

Benjamin et al. (2012) examined the link between decision-making and happiness. Their research found that decisions aligning with a person’s intrinsic motivations and long-term values result in greater life satisfaction. If a decision contributes to sustained well-being and aligns with one’s core principles, it is more likely to be the right one.

Practical Framework for Evaluating Decisions

Based on these findings, here are four key indicators of a well-made decision:

1. Process Quality – Was the decision made using a rational, thoughtful approach that considered all relevant factors?
2. Minimal Regret – Do you feel little or no regret about your choice after a reasonable period?
3. Alignment with Values – Does the decision reflect your long-term goals and intrinsic motivations?
4. Emotional Peace – Are you at peace with your choice, without excessive second-guessing?

Conclusion

Judging whether a decision was right requires looking beyond immediate outcomes. Academic research suggests that a well-structured decision-making process, minimal long-term regret, alignment with personal values, and emotional satisfaction are stronger indicators of a good decision than short-term results. By applying these principles, individuals can make more confident choices and navigate uncertainty with greater clarity.

References

• Bell, D. E. (1982). Regret in decision making under uncertainty. Operations Research, 30(5), 961-981.
• Benjamin, D. J., Heffetz, O., Kimball, M. S., & Rees-Jones, A. (2012). What do you think would make you happier? What do you think you would choose?. American Economic Review, 102(5), 2083-2110.
• Connolly, T., & Zeelenberg, M. (2002). Regret in decision making. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 11(6), 212-216.
• Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
• Russo, J. E., & Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1990). Decision traps: The ten barriers to brilliant decision-making and how to overcome them. Simon & Schuster.
• Schwartz, B. (2004). The paradox of choice: Why more is less. HarperCollins.