Category: simulation
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Understanding CO2 Emissions for different freight transport modes (renewable as well as non-renewable)
One of the most important questions to ask in transitioning to renewable modes of transport is simply: How much less CO2 are we going to emit by switching to renewables? The other important question is: How much does it cost? I have been researching on that question quite a bit. And I found quite a…
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Tesla Lease Mileage Limit and the Central Limit Theorem
I am onto my second Tesla car leases now, so I think I can define another form of range anxiety with my leased cars: Driving over the lease limit. It was actually quite interesting. When I was leasing my first Tesla, I did a rough calculation of my daily driving, and figured that 10,000 miles…
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SHOULD I BUY OR LEASE A TESLA? PART 4: It all comes down to your apetities towards risk
Having used multiple spreadsheets to illustrate the dollars and cents around the leasing vs buying option, let me conclude. It depends on how you view uncertainty. As I said earlier, one big advantage of leasing is its clarity and certainty. You know how much you are going to pay, and that is how much it…
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SHOULD I BUY OR LEASE A TESLA? PART 2: Total loan cost (when you are sure about the depreciation)
In a previous post, I calculated the total cost of leasing a Tesla, using my own experience as an example. Before we move on to the buying option, let me mention one important feature of leasing: It has more certainty in terms of total cost. You know what you pay, and you do not worry…
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Simulation: Is demand equal to sales? (Part II, and why is there a Loch Ness Monster?)
In an earlier post, we discussed the difference between demand and sales using a simulation exercise. Now the question is: How can we visualize the difference? To start off, we all know the shape of the normal curve (in the example we discussed the mean is 600, and its standard deviation is 100): However, if…
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Simulation: Is demand equal to sales? (Part I)
Consider the following problem: Suppose at a retail store the annual demand for a toy is a random variable with a normal distribution of N(600, 100), i.e., with mean of 600 and standard deviation of 100. Simulate the distribution of sales if 700 units of such a toy is ordered. What is the expected sales?…
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Simulation: It all starts with a coin toss
There are many sophisticated tools dedicated to Monte Carlo simulation, but Excel is powerful enough to handle a variety of simulation needs. Here are the basic steps of simulation in Excel. First the users build a decision model in a spreadsheet and specify what are the sources of uncertainty. Excel can then generate random numbers…
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Last-mile Transport is the Key Driver in Supply Chain Carbon Footprint
Does online shopping have a larger or smaller carbon footprint? Well, it depends. But depends on what? In a most recently-published study by Shahmohammadi et al (2020) published in Environmental Science & Technology, the authors highlight that the last-mile transport is one of the most important drivers of carbon emissions, among other things. What I…
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Carbon Foot printing: Devil is in its details…
I have been reading up on the carbon foot printing work lately. A lot of interesting findings. Overall, my impression is that the modern e-commerce is not significantly improving our carbon footprint. And with customers’ adaptive behavior (e.g., ordering more, not giving up store trips), it is likely that we can end up with a…